Fortunate Families? The Effects of Wealth on Marriage and Fertility
Level 2 - randomized trial
Level 2 by design analogy (natural experiment utilizing randomized lottery winnings)
OpenAlex W4327905708 · doi:10.3386/w31039
What was done
The authors evaluated the causal effects of large, positive wealth shocks on marriage formation, divorce risk, and fertility using a natural experiment design among a sample of Swedish lottery players.
What was found
The abstract does not report specific numerical values or confidence intervals. Directionally, for male lottery winners, wealth shocks increased marriage formation, reduced divorce risk, and increased fertility. For female lottery winners, the only detected effect was an increase in short-run divorce risk, with no long-run effect. The authors also noted that divorce settlements in Sweden often favor the wealthier spouse.
Why it matters
This study provides causal evidence that sudden wealth generates starkly asymmetric demographic outcomes for men versus women, highlighting how financial resources differentially alter partner attractiveness and marital bargaining.
Limits
The abstract does not state the sample size, prize amounts, or numerical effect sizes. The findings are derived from Swedish lottery players under Swedish divorce property law, which may not generalize to other countries, legal regimes, or non-lottery forms of wealth accumulation.
Cited by
- supports Men's wealth strongly predicts their likelihood of getting married, staying married, having children, and remarrying, whereas women's physical attractiveness is a stronger predictor of marriage and partner wealth than men's attractiveness.