An Analysis of the Causes of Low Fertility Rate in Korea: From the Economic Perspective
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Level 3 by design analogy (econometric analysis of longitudinal panel data), not clinical CEBM.
OpenAlex W4403482800 · doi:10.29274/ews.2024.36.3.67
What was done
Analyzed waves 4 through 25 (2001–2022) of the Korean Labor Panel dataset using a Tobit regression model. The study evaluated the economic determinants of South Korea's fertility decline by separating the positive income effect of rising household resources from the negative substitution effect of higher female hourly wages (the opportunity cost of childbearing).
What was found
The abstract reports directional findings without numerical coefficients or effect sizes: - Rising household income increased the demand for children (positive income effect). - Increases in women's hourly earnings resulted in a negative substitution effect that outweighed the positive income effect. - The magnitude of the negative substitution effect was larger among women with higher educational attainment.
Why it matters
These findings suggest that cash transfers alone may be insufficient to reverse fertility decline if the opportunity cost of maternal career interruption remains high. Policies aimed at reducing the time cost of child-rearing for working women may be more effective.
Limits
The abstract reports no exact sample sizes, point estimates, confidence intervals, or model fit metrics. Observational panel regressions are vulnerable to unmeasured confounding, such as shifting social norms, housing affordability, and intense private education expenditures.
Cited by
- supports The birth rate in South Korea is currently 0.7.