Effects of Age-specific Fertility Trends on Overall Fertility Trends: United States, 1990–2023
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Population-level longitudinal vital statistics analysis (by design analogy, non-clinical)
OpenAlex W4406877968 · doi:10.15620/cdc/174576
What was done
This study analyzed National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System birth data from 1990 through 2023. To evaluate the impact of age-specific fertility trends on overall birth counts, general fertility rates (GFRs), and total fertility rates (TFRs), the authors modeled counterfactual scenarios by holding 1990 maternal age-specific birth rates constant across all subsequent years.
What was found
From 1990 to 2023, the actual number of U.S. births declined 14%, GFR declined 23%, and TFR declined 22%. In 1990, females under 30 accounted for 69.8% of births, decreasing to 48.6% in 2023. The magnitude of fertility declines in females under 30 was larger than fertility increases in women 30 and older, driving the overall net decline in fertility metrics.
Why it matters
It quantifies how shifting maternal age patterns drive the overall U.S. fertility decline, showing that rate increases among women aged 30 and older fail to offset substantial drops among younger women.
Limits
The abstract does not report absolute sample sizes (number of births), confidence intervals, or granular demographic and socioeconomic subgroups, and relies on descriptive vital statistics without assessing underlying causal mechanisms.
Cited by
- supports Since 2007, the general fertility rate in the United States has fallen by 23%.