Religiously inspired baby boom: evidence from Georgia
Level 2 - randomized trial
Natural experiment / quasi-experimental difference-in-differences analysis (graded by design analogy, not clinical CEBM)
OpenAlex W4408003316 · doi:10.1007/s00148-025-01092-5
What was done
The authors evaluated the impact of a 2007 intervention by the Georgian Orthodox Patriarch offering to personally baptize third- and higher-order children in Georgia. They analyzed macro-level data using synthetic control and interrupted time-series methods, and analyzed micro-level survey data from a representative sample of Georgian women using a difference-in-differences design based on variation across religion, ethnicity, marital status, and timing.
What was found
The intervention was associated with a 17% increase (0.3 children per woman) in the national total fertility rate. Among married Georgian Orthodox women, the birth rate increased by 42% (annual hazard rate increase of 3.5 percentage points) and the third- and higher-order birth rate increased by 100% (annual hazard rate increase of 1.3 percentage points). The intervention was also associated with increased marriage rates and reduced reported abortions.
Why it matters
This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence that moral or religious incentives from traditional authority figures can substantially shift fertility and family formation behaviors in low-fertility societies.
Limits
The abstract does not report the exact sample size (n), confidence intervals, or specific years of follow-up. Abortion data rely on self-reports, which are subject to reporting bias, and findings in this specific socio-religious context may have limited generalizability.
Cited by
- supports When the head of the Georgian Orthodox Church began personally baptizing third or higher-order children, fertility rates in Georgia rose in direct response among the targeted demographic.