Amish fertility in the United States: Comparative evidence from the American Community Survey and Amish population registries
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Cross-sectional comparative demographic analysis using survey and registry datasets (design analogy, non-clinical CEBM)
OpenAlex W4409874891 · doi:10.4054/demres.2025.52.26
What was done
Researchers evaluated whether Amish respondents can be reliably identified in the American Community Survey (ACS, 2000–2021) by screening for Pennsylvania Dutch language use, absence of a household telephone, and farming occupation. They calculated fertility measures—including total fertility rates, age-specific fertility rates, and non-marital fertility—from the ACS proxy sample and cross-validated them against the Cross-sectional Amish Population and Environment Database-2010s (CAPED-2010s), an administrative registry database of North American Amish.
What was found
Both methods generated consistent fertility metrics: total fertility rates were just over six children per woman, age-specific fertility rates peaked between ages 20 and 29, and non-marital fertility was very low. The abstract does not provide exact numerical sample sizes, specific rates, or confidence intervals.
Why it matters
Validating proxy-based identification of Amish populations in national surveys like the ACS allows researchers to analyze Amish demographic and socioeconomic outcomes using large-scale public data alongside specialized population registries.
Limits
The abstract does not disclose exact sample sizes, error margins, or precise point estimates. Relying on proxy attributes (farming, language, and lack of a telephone) risks misclassification and may underrepresent modernizing, non-farming, or telephone-accessible Amish households.
Cited by
- contradicts If every married woman in the United States reproduced at the marital age-specific rates of Amish women, the US total fertility rate would still remain below three children per woman.