Choe · Diabetes & metabolism journal 2026 · prospective cohort study · n=2129

Thigh Muscle Quality Predicts the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

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Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study

Prospective observational cohort study

PubMed 42660514 · doi:10.4093/dmj.2025.1239 · record verified 2026-08-31

What was done

A prospective cohort study evaluated 2,129 East Asian adults (mean age 57.4 ± 16.9 years; BMI 25.0 ± 3.9 kg/m²; 48.5% male) with at least one cardiometabolic risk factor and no diabetes at baseline. Low-density muscle (LDM) area, reflecting intramuscular fat infiltration, was quantified via non-contrast CT at the midthigh level (attenuation 0–30 Hounsfield units). Participants were followed for incident type 2 diabetes over a median of 7.4 years using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models.

What was found

Over follow-up, 201 males (19.5%) and 156 females (14.1%) developed diabetes. Those who developed diabetes had higher baseline HbA1c (6.1% ± 0.3% vs. 5.7% ± 0.4%) and larger LDM areas (48.8 ± 14.2 cm² vs. 38.1 ± 13.2 cm², both P < 0.05). In adjusted Cox models, a large LDM area was independently associated with incident diabetes in males (hazard ratio [HR], 2.36; 95% CI, 1.52–3.67) and females (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.28–3.61). Adding LDM area to traditional risk factor models increased the area under the curve from 0.810 to 0.838 in males and from 0.893 to 0.908 in females.

Why it matters

Intramuscular fat infiltration in the thigh is a strong independent predictor of incident diabetes that enhances risk discrimination beyond traditional cardiometabolic factors.

Limits

The study was restricted to East Asian individuals with preexisting cardiometabolic risk factors, limiting generalizability to healthier or non-Asian populations. CT was performed only at baseline, precluding evaluation of changes in muscle quality over time. Residual confounding from unmeasured lifestyle factors such as specific diet or exercise regimens cannot be excluded.

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