Lyman Stone
Lyman Stone is a demographer, researcher, and writer. His published academic research focuses on demographic topics, including the effect of first births on women's employment in Nepal and Amish fertility in the United States.
63 claims checked on air: 8 context 10 contradicted 9 overstated 18 supported 18 unverified
What they said on air - unverified
Intentional fertility causes a short-term rise in happiness in longitudinal data.
"intentional fertility causes a rise in happiness. The problem is mix unintentional and intentional fertility in the data. It's very difficult to separate cuz you don't have preferences. I guarantee you in longitudinal data, happiness rises short-term." (said at 1:02:35)
No published record matching the claim that intentional fertility causes a short-term rise in happiness in longitudinal data was located; this does not prove the claim false.
Happiness rises prior to marriage during engagement and remains above baseline during marriage, whereas the happiness of a cohabiting union rapidly returns to baseline.
"Happiness rises with engagement. That is, it rises before marriage basically, but then marriage locks it in. If you don't get married, the happiness of a cohabiting union rapidly returns to baseline. The happiness of a married union tends to remain above baseline as long as you remain married" (said at 1:02:50)
No published record matching the claim that happiness rises prior to marriage during engagement and remains above baseline during marriage, whereas the happiness of a cohabiting union rapidly returns to baseline was located; this does not prove the claim false.
Nordic registry data shows that individuals whose IVF fails or takes longer than expected are nearly twice as likely to be prescribed antidepressants or antipsychotics.
"what we know is from like Nordic data where there's no privacy, so researchers can see all your medical data, which is super fun, we know that if your IVF fails or if it takes just longer than expected, you're like almost twice as likely to be prescribed antipsychotics or antidepressants." (said at 1:16:45)
No published record matching the claim that Nordic registry data shows individuals whose IVF fails or takes longer than expected are nearly twice as likely to be prescribed antidepressants or antipsychotics was located; this does not prove the claim false.
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) traits and associated genetic variants are associated with significantly lower fertility.
"ASD spectrum symptomaticity and genes related for are associated with much lower fertility, no?" (said at 1:19:49)
No published record matching the claim that autism spectrum disorder traits and associated genetic variants are associated with significantly lower fertility was located; this does not prove the claim false.
South Korea's fertility rate rose from under 0.7 to over 1.0 following the introduction of large financial marriage incentives.
"South Korean fertility has risen from under 0.7 to just over one in the latest numbers. HOST: How the fuck did that happen? GUEST1: Money. They dropped massive marriage—" (said at 1:22:25)
No published record matching the claim that South Korea's fertility rate rose from under 0.7 to over 1.0 following financial marriage incentives was located; this does not prove the claim false.
South Korea's government spending as a percentage of GDP is roughly half that of the United States, such that adding 12% of GDP in public spending would still leave it below current US government spending levels.
"Also, Korea's government is already like half the size of the US. With an extra 12% of GDP on top, they'd still have lower spending as a percentage of GDP than we have right now." (said at 1:23:38)
No published record matching the specific comparative figures regarding South Korea's and the United States' general government spending as a percentage of GDP, or the effect of adding 12% of GDP to South Korean spending, was located; this does not prove the claim false.
The rate at which people with two children choose to have a third child has not declined significantly in industrialized countries over the past 20 years.
"That is the odds at which somebody with two kids chooses to have a third have really not declined very much in industrialized countries in the last 20 years." (said at 1:32:12)
No published record matching the claim that the odds or rate of progressing from two children to a third child (the parity progression ratio from parity 2 to parity 3) has remained stable or not declined significantly across industrialized countries over the past 20 years was located; this does not prove the claim false.
The proportion of Americans holding a passport has tripled over the span of a generation and a half.
"Isn't it weird that the share of Americans with a passport has like tripled in a generation and a half?" (said at 1:39:48)
No published record matching the claim that the proportion of Americans holding a passport has tripled over the span of a generation and a half was located; this does not prove the claim false.
When controlling for age and race, women who experience pregnancy do not have detectably higher mortality rates than women who are not pregnant.
"women who experience pregnancy do not have detectably higher mortality rates than age and race matched women who are not pregnant." (said at 2:17:30)
No published record matching the claim that women who experience pregnancy do not have detectably higher mortality rates than age- and race-matched non-pregnant women was located; this does not prove the claim false.
The estimated policy cost per life-year added by prenatal cash incentives is roughly $25,000 to $30,000, compared to $35,000 to $75,000 per life-year saved for programs like Medicaid and Medicare.
"The most expensive estimates suggest that the cost per life year added of prenatal cash incentives is like you might have to pay as much as 25 to 30,000 dollars in total policy cost per life year you add. Whereas like the best, most efficient government programs like Medicaid, Medicare are like 35 to 75,000 dollars for each life year you save." (said at 2:19:20)
No published record matching the specific comparison of policy cost per life-year added by prenatal cash incentives ($25,000 to $30,000) versus Medicaid and Medicare ($35,000 to $75,000 per life-year saved) was located; this does not prove the claim false.
American fathers do roughly four times as large a share of domestic work as fathers in the most involved known pre-agricultural societies.
"American dads do something like four times as large a share of domestic work as the most involved pre-agricultural society dads that we know." (said at 2:32:19)
No published record matching the claim that American fathers perform roughly four times as large a share of domestic work as fathers in the most involved known pre-agricultural societies was located; this does not prove the claim false.
Hungary spends approximately 2% to 3% of GDP on family and fertility policies, despite claiming to spend 6%.
"They claim to, but it's a lie. To be clear, they're not telling the truth about how much they spend. ... They're counting—sorry, they're counting the face value of the loans that they will underwrite if people fully comply with the conditions. ... About 2 or 3%." (said at 2:32:58)
No published record analyzing the specific budgetary accounting discrepancy regarding Hungary's claimed family policy spending (6% of GDP vs. an actual 2% to 3% based on loan underwriting face-value accounting) was located; this does not prove the claim false.
Sweden's pronatalist family policies raised completed fertility by 0.3 children above a synthetic control, converting tempo effects into long-term cohort effects.
"But what happened to completed fertility? It rose 0.3 children above a plausible synthetic control. The policy created tempo effects that over time became cohort effects." (said at 2:34:10)
No published record matching the claim that Sweden's family policies raised completed fertility by 0.3 children above a synthetic control, or that tempo effects converted into long-term cohort fertility increases of this magnitude, was located; this does not prove the claim false. Demographic studies examining Swedish family policies (such as the parental leave speed premium) generally observe strong tempo effects—influencing birth spacing and period total fertility rates—while completed cohort fertility has remained relatively stable across cohorts.
In countries that implemented population control programs in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, carbon emissions rose faster the harder the country cracked down on population growth.
"The reality is we can look at countries that implemented population control programs in the '60s, '70s, and '80s because the UN's been collecting data on this for decades, and we can say what happened to their carbon emissions? And the answer is the harder a country cracked down on population growth, the faster their climate emissions rose." (said at 2:42:21)
No published record matching the claim that carbon emissions rose faster in countries the harder they cracked down on population growth in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s was located; this does not prove the claim false.
Sweden spends approximately 3% of its GDP on family policies and child benefits.
"Sweden's spending is like three total." (said at 2:54:34)
No published record matching the claim that Sweden spends approximately 3% of its GDP on family policies and child benefits was located; this does not prove the claim false.
Studies evaluating the impact of motherhood medals or state maternal honors on birth rates find null effects.
"The studies on I mean I I have no opposition to motherhood medals in principle. There's only like two studies on them and they both seem to find null effects" (said at 3:05:42)
No published record matching studies evaluating the impact of motherhood medals or state maternal honors on birth rates or fertility was located; this does not prove the claim false.
Fertility behaviors are socially contagious: when peers in a social circle delay childbearing, use contraception, or get divorced, it negatively impacts an individual's odds of having children.
"there's actually like sort of self-reinforcing causal thing. that show that fertility is a contagious behavior on both sides. When someone in your social circle um adopts a long delay strategy for fertility, like they um they they have an abortion or they adopt a long-acting reversible contraception or sterilization or they simply take a long time to have a kid, it affects your odds of having a kid in a negative way. Same thing happens with divorce." (said at 3:11:41)
No published record matching the claim that fertility behaviors and fertility delays (such as peer abortion, long-acting reversible contraception use, or delayed childbearing) or divorce act as self-reinforcing, socially contagious behaviors in a peer network to reduce an individual's odds of having children was located in the searched literature; this does not prove the claim false.
In their late 40s, approximately ten times as many people regret having had too few children compared to those who regret having had too many, with about 90% of all family size regrets being about not having had more children.
"The number of people who when they get to their late 40s will regret not having had more kids is about 10 times as many as the number who regret having had too many. There are some who regret having had too many. About 90% of the people who have any regret about their family size regret that they didn't have more." (said at 3:35:03)
No published record matching the claim that in their late 40s approximately ten times as many individuals (or about 90% of those reporting family size regrets) regret having had too few children compared to having had too many was located; this does not prove the claim false.
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