HoldsUp

Lyman Stone

Lyman Stone is a demographer, researcher, and writer. His published academic research focuses on demographic topics, including the effect of first births on women's employment in Nepal and Amish fertility in the United States.

63 claims checked on air: 8 context 10 contradicted 9 overstated 18 supported 18 unverified

What they said on air - supported

0:11:58supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

North Korea's total fertility rate is approximately twice that of South Korea.

"North Korea's fertility rate is something like two times that of South Korea." (said at 0:11:58)

Demographic analyses and international population estimates confirm that North Korea's total fertility rate (TFR) is approximately double that of South Korea. South Korea has experienced a steep decline to ultra-low fertility levels (dropping below 0.8–0.9 births per woman in recent years, among the lowest in the world), whereas North Korea's total fertility rate has remained substantially higher, estimated at around 1.8 to 1.9 births per woman based on intercensal reconstructions and global demographic assessments.

0:55:47supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that spending to raise a child is approximately $250,000 over the course of the child's life.

"USDA says it'll be like $250,000 of spending over the course of a kid's life." (said at 0:55:47)

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) regularly publishes the 'Expenditures on Children by Families' report series, which estimates total parental expenditures to raise a child from birth through age 17. In middle-income, two-parent households, these estimates have consistently hovered around $230,000 to $250,000 (for example, approximately $245,340 in the 2013 report and $233,610 in 2015 dollars before projected inflation, which rises to ~$284,570 with projected inflation). Note that the USDA estimate specifically covers birth through age 17 rather than the child's entire lifespan or college education.

0:56:49supportedhighBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Peak earnings and income for most men in the United States currently occur around age 47.

"Peak income now for most men is at like 47. Okay?" (said at 0:56:49)

Data from U.S. labor market surveys (such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, and Social Security Administration panel records) show that median and average earnings for men follow an inverted U-shaped lifecycle trajectory, peaking in late middle age (typically between ages 45 and 54, with major compensation analytics datasets commonly pinpointing men's peak earning age between 47 and 49 before plateauing).

0:58:50supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Longitudinal survey data show that marrying before age 27 is a strong predictor of closing the gap between early desired family size and final completed family size.

"We have these longitudinal surveys where we ask people how many kids do you want to have when they're like 18 and 22 and 25. We follow up for decades. And so then we can see who hit their goals, who didn't. And one of the best predictors of hitting your goal is the age at which you marry. And if you marry before age 27, on average, you have basically no gap between your desired family size early life and your final family size." (said at 0:58:50)

Longitudinal cohort data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) follow individuals from young adulthood through the end of their reproductive years, comparing early-life desired family size with completed fertility. Analyses of this cohort show that the timing of first marriage is a primary determinant of achieving desired family size: individuals who marry in their early-to-mid 20s (prior to their late 20s) show little to no gap between early fertility desires and achieved parity, whereas delaying first marriage beyond the mid-20s or age 30 significantly increases the likelihood of underachieving early fertility preferences.

1:28:44supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

When Iran restricted women's access to higher education, its birth rate continued to plummet.

"Yeah, but when Iran started curtailing female access to higher education, their birth rate continued to plummet." (said at 1:28:44)

Demographic research and policy analyses document that despite Iran's shifts toward pronatalist policies beginning around the mid-2000s—including the introduction of gender quotas and restrictions curtailing female enrollment across dozens of university degree programs in 2012—fertility rates did not recover and continued to decline to below-replacement levels. Studies examining Iran's demographic transition show that coercive pronatalist measures and social restrictions have failed to reverse long-term declines in total fertility.

1:30:47supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

First births account for the majority of the fertility decline in industrialized countries.

"first births are the locus of most fertility decline in the industrial—" (said at 1:30:47)

Demographic analyses of recent fertility trends in industrialized and low-fertility countries confirm that declines in first births—driven by postponing or foregoing entry into parenthood—are the main component driving overall total fertility declines.

1:31:46supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Controlling for income, young men travel significantly less than young women.

"And young men, controlling for income, travel way less than young women." (said at 1:31:46)

Evidence from national travel surveys in developed countries indicates a generational shift (termed the 'gender turnaround') in which young adult women travel more than young men. Analysis of longitudinal travel data shows that over recent decades, daily and weekly travel mobility among young men has declined substantially relative to past cohorts and is lower than that of young women, a pattern that persists across socio-economic and demographic controls.

1:33:20supportedhighBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Rates of non-marital pregnancy in the United States are declining.

"And the reason they won't is because well, I mean non-marital pregnancy is declining." (said at 1:33:20)

National vital statistics and demographic research demonstrate that nonmarital fertility and pregnancy rates in the United States have steadily declined over the past decade and a half, following peaks around 2007–2008. Analyses of National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) natality data and the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) show that the overall drop in US fertility has been predominantly driven by sharp declines in unintended births and childbearing among unmarried and younger women.

2:12:56supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

In Sweden, the total number of children linked to fathers via administrative registry data is about 6% to 8% less than those linked to mothers.

"Sweden actually tracks this data pretty aggressively, and the total number of children born by administrative data matching to fathers is about 8% less than to mothers. There's actually about 6% in Sweden." (said at 2:12:56)

In demographic and vital statistics registries across high-income countries, maternal linkage at birth is virtually universal, whereas paternal identity and age are unrecorded for a minority of births (typically averaging between 5% and 10% across cohorts in administrative registers like those of Sweden and other European nations). Demographers routinely address this missing-paternity registration gap when estimating male fertility.

2:13:13supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

In the United States, approximately 10% to 11% of children have no medically acknowledged paternity on birth records.

"In the US, it's about 11%. Actually, I think in the newest data, it's 10%, but about one in 10 kids have no medically acknowledged paternity." (said at 2:13:13)

Analysis of vital statistics and population-level birth records in the United States indicates that approximately 10% to 12% of registered birth certificates lack paternal information (such as paternal age, race, or acknowledgment). The guest's estimate of approximately 10% to 11% aligns with national birth certificate reporting patterns documented in National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) data, although paternity information on birth records is an administrative/vital statistics entry rather than a clinical 'medical' acknowledgment.

2:13:25supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

In UK Office for National Statistics data, father information is missing for approximately 7% of registered births.

"the ONS has father data, but it's missing for I want to say 7% of births, but it is there." (said at 2:13:25)

In UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) birth registration data for England and Wales, births registered solely by the mother (sole registrations) do not contain paternal information. National vital statistics and ONS longitudinal studies indicate that sole registrations historically accounted for approximately 7% of all live births (ranging from around 5% to 8% across recent decades).

2:53:24supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

South Korea spends approximately 1% of its GDP on family and child benefits, placing it well below the OECD average.

"South Korea's like 1%. South Korea is way below the OECD average. All the Asian countries are, which is one reason why they have low fertility." (said at 2:53:24)

Comparative analyses of social spending and family policy across OECD countries confirm that South Korea's public spending on family benefits (including cash benefits, services, and tax breaks for families) has historically hovered around 1% to 1.4% of GDP, substantially below the OECD average (which typically exceeds 2.1% to 2.3% of GDP). Studies analyzing family policies and fertility in South Korea and across the OECD note that weak institutional and family-benefit support in East Asian contexts has been a contributing factor to persistent ultra-low fertility rates.

3:02:30supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Empirical studies looking at pronatalist cash transfer policies by parity show that cash incentives have the largest positive effect on first birth rates rather than higher-order births.

"The effect on studies that look by parity. So we're looking not at how not how did this policy increase the birth rate but how does it how did it increase first birth or second birth or third birth rates? Effects were biggest on first birth rates... in reality the empirical estimates show the opposite that actually money is most influential on first birth." (said at 3:02:30)

Empirical quasi-experimental evaluations examining the parity-specific fertility effects of universal and pronatalist cash transfers find that cash incentives have the largest positive effect on first births (entry into parenthood). For example, analysis of the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend's unconditional annual cash transfers demonstrated that while cash transfers significantly increased short-term fertility rates (particularly among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations), the effect was largest for first-order births.

3:06:34supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

When the head of the Georgian Orthodox Church began personally baptizing third or higher-order children, fertility rates in Georgia rose in direct response among the targeted demographic.

"When he when he uh the leader of the Georgian Orthodox Church when he started personally baptizing third or higher child children fertility rose directly in response to the exactly women that women that he was targeting." (said at 3:06:34)

Demographic research analyzing the 2007 initiative by Patriarch Ilia II of the Georgian Orthodox Church—offering to personally baptize third and subsequent children of married Orthodox couples—found a substantial and direct causal impact on fertility among the targeted demographic. Using difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods on both micro- and macro-level data, researchers observed a 17% increase in Georgia's national total fertility rate and a 100% increase in third- and higher-order birth rates specifically among married Georgian Orthodox women.

3:09:05supportedhighBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Experimental studies in developing countries show that simply renaming a cash benefit substantively alters how recipients allocate and spend the money.

"there's a couple of studies that look at cash benefits in developing countries and they think just they've studied if you rename the benefit you're giving, does it change how people use it?... What they found is yes. Literally just renaming a child benefit substantively changes how people use it." (said at 3:09:05)

Large-scale randomized controlled trials in developing countries have tested 'labeled cash transfers' (LCTs), where cash is distributed without formal conditionality but explicitly designated or labeled for a specific purpose (such as education or child development). For example, a major randomized trial in rural Morocco evaluated an unconditional cash transfer that was explicitly labeled as an education support program. The study found that simply labeling the transfer produced substantial gains in school participation and educational investment—achieving effects comparable to traditional conditional cash transfers without requiring costly enforcement of conditions.

3:12:41supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Approximately 60% of adults in the United States live within 50 miles of their parents.

"actually 60% of people do. It's just like like highly educated people don't." (said at 3:12:41)

Nationally representative survey data from the United States confirm that a substantial majority of adults live close to their parents/family, and that spatial proximity is inversely related to socioeconomic advantage/education. Specifically, analysis of the 2013 Panel Study of Income Dynamics found that among adults aged 25 and older with living family members, 74.8% had their nearest parent or adult child within 30 miles. Furthermore, sociodemographically disadvantaged adults are significantly more likely to live near their family members compared to those with higher socioeconomic and educational attainment.

3:20:39supportedhighBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Advanced paternal age is the most predictive factor for most pathogenic de novo genetic mutations in offspring.

"people talk about this as a woman's problem. It's true, a man can conceive children for a very long time, but it is male age that's most predictive of most de novo of most pathogenic de novo genetic mutations." (said at 3:20:39)

Large-scale whole-genome sequencing studies of parent-offspring trios demonstrate that paternal age is the primary predictor of de novo single-nucleotide and small indel germline mutations in offspring. While maternal age is the predominant risk factor for chromosomal aneuploidies (such as trisomies), paternal age accounts for the vast majority of sequence-level de novo mutations, adding approximately 1.5 to 2 new mutations per year of paternal age (roughly four times the rate of maternal age accumulation).

3:20:39supportedhighBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Advanced maternal age is an established risk factor for Down syndrome in offspring.

"Now, women's age also matters for stuff like Down syndrome." (said at 3:20:39)

Advanced maternal age is a well-established risk factor for fetal aneuploidy, particularly trisomy 21 (Down syndrome). Extensive epidemiological data, including a nationwide Danish cohort study of over 540,000 singleton pregnancies, demonstrate a steep increase in the risk of trisomy 21 with increasing maternal age, particularly among women aged 35 years and older.

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