HoldsUp

Simone Collins

Simone Collins is an author and pronatalist advocate. Her work focuses on global fertility rates and demographic decline.

7 claims checked on air: 2 context 1 overstated 2 supported 2 unverified

What they said on air

0:01:32unverifiedvery lowBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

In a few years, US Social Security beneficiaries will receive under 80% of their expected payments.

"boomers who are like like not my problem, they're still in just a few years going to be receiving only like under 80% of their expected social security payments, which are being paid for by Gen Z who's not expecting anything." (said at 0:01:32)

No published record matching the claim regarding Social Security benefit reductions to under 80% upon trust fund depletion was located in the fetched database records; this does not prove the claim false.

1:03:42supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Women in developed countries with low social support experience a short-term hit to happiness during early childhood before it rises in the long run.

"Women especially do take a short-term hit per the research that I've seen, and then it goes up over the long run." (said at 1:03:42)

Longitudinal demographic research confirms the 'parenthood happiness paradox': parents—particularly mothers—often experience an initial drop in subjective well-being and life satisfaction during the early transition to parenthood and early childhood years, particularly in institutional contexts lacking strong family policy supports, whereas long-term parental well-being tends to recover or exceed that of non-parents in later life stages.

2:16:15overstatedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Severe morning sickness is caused by an identified protein combination, and a treatment targeting it is currently in clinical trials.

"there's actually a cure for morning sickness that's in trials cuz we identified the specific protein combination that causes severe morning sickness." (said at 2:16:15)

Genetic and mechanistic studies have established that severe morning sickness (hyperemesis gravidarum) is primarily driven by fetal production of the hormone/protein GDF15 (growth and differentiation factor 15) acting on maternal brainstem receptors, combined with maternal sensitivity determined partly by prepregnancy exposure. Earlier genome-wide association studies also implicated IGFBP7 alongside GDF15. Describing this discovery as identifying a 'protein combination' is an oversimplification, and asserting that a 'cure' is currently in clinical trials is overstated: while researchers have proposed preventive strategies (such as prepregnancy GDF15 desensitization or metformin) and therapeutic targets (GDF15/GFRAL blockade), these remain in preclinical, observational, or early investigational stages rather than proven cures.

3:03:45unverifiedvery lowBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Qualitative research by Catherine Ruth Pakaluk on college-educated American women with five or more children found that most did not initially plan to have large families, but a positive experience with their first child served as the tipping point.

"Catherine Ruth Pakaluk did a lot of research on studying highly values motivated people who already have four. ... Her what she found when she when she interviewed these women was for so many of them and this is to your point their experience with their first child was really the tipping point. None of them planned on having a lot of kids and what happened that she noticed again and again was these women had such a great experience with their first kid." (said at 3:03:45)

No published record matching the qualitative research findings described by Catherine Ruth Pakaluk was located; this does not prove the claim false.

3:30:04supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Being either significantly underweight or significantly overweight reduces a woman's likelihood of getting pregnant.

"Yeah, if you're super underweight or super overweight, you're less likely to get pregnant." (said at 3:30:04)

Large prospective cohort studies and a 2024 meta-analysis confirm that being outside the normal body mass index (BMI) range—both underweight and overweight/obese—is associated with reduced fecundability (the per-cycle probability of conception), prolonged time-to-pregnancy, and increased risk of subfertility or infertility in women.

3:34:32needs contextmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

A woman's ability to conceive declines linearly starting from age 20.

"Ability to conceive declines literally linearly for women from age 20?" (said at 3:34:32)

Preconception cohort studies and historical demographic analyses demonstrate that natural fecundability (the per-cycle probability of conception) peaks in the early 20s and decreases progressively with age. Some prospective cohorts (e.g., Wesselink et al., 2017) and historical natural-fertility models (e.g., Wood, 2000) describe an approximately linear decline in per-cycle conception rates from age 20–24 through age 45. However, the term "literally linear" requires context: several studies find that fecundability remains relatively stable or decreases gradually through the late 20s and early 30s, followed by a steeper, accelerated decline in the mid-to-late 30s.

3:34:38needs contexthighBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

De novo mutations in male sperm begin rising at age 18.

"Men's mutations in their sperm start rising at age 18?" (said at 3:34:38)

Paternal de novo germline mutations accumulate continuously with paternal age at a rate of approximately 1.5 to 2 mutations per year. However, this accumulation is driven by ongoing spermatogonial stem cell divisions, a process that begins at puberty (typically around age 12 to 14) rather than starting specifically at age 18. Age 18 is commonly used as an early-adulthood reference baseline in demographic and genetic modeling, but biological mutation accumulation begins earlier.

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