HoldsUp

Stephen J. Shaw

Stephen J. Shaw is a data scientist and filmmaker. His research includes work published in Scientific Reports focusing on a microdemographic framework for decomposing contemporary fertility dynamics.

13 claims checked on air: 1 context 3 contradicted 5 supported 4 unverified

What they said on air - supported

0:08:09supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Births in the industrialized world are currently halving every 50 to 60 years.

"where we are right now, births are halving in the industrialized world every 50 to 60 years." (said at 0:08:09)

Demographic data and population dynamics in industrialized countries support this calculation. With total fertility rates across most developed nations persisting well below the replacement level of ~2.1 children per woman (typically ranging between ~1.2 and 1.5 in Europe and East Asia), the net reproduction rate corresponds to each generation being roughly 60% to 70% the size of the preceding one. Over the span of two generations (approximately 50 to 60 years, given a mean generation length of 25–30 years), the compound reduction in cohort size results in annual births falling by approximately 50% (e.g., 0.70 × 0.70 ≈ 0.49) in the absence of fertility recovery.

0:30:58supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Approximately 90% of people at some point in life either have or want to have children.

"people at some point in life either have or want kids. That's not all right-wingers. 90% is pretty much everybody." (said at 0:30:58)

Demographic surveys consistently show that the vast majority of adults (roughly 85% to 90%) across the United States and Europe either have children or express an intention or desire to have children over their lifetime. While actual completed fertility rates are lower due to social, economic, and biological factors, childlessness as an explicit personal ideal or intention remains a minority preference (around 10% to 15% in broad European and North American survey cohorts, although some recent regional estimates report higher proportions of childfree adults).

0:53:00supportedhighBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

In the United States, at current prevailing fertility rates, a woman reaches a 50% cumulative probability of ever becoming a mother around age 27.

"at what moment in time does a woman have a 50% chance of ever becoming a mother? And that means you look at the people who've already become a mother, and in the US this is around age 27." (said at 0:53:00)

Data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), which collects comprehensive birth registration data for the United States, show that the average age of women having their first child has risen steadily, reaching approximately 27 years. Specifically, the mean maternal age at first birth rose from 24.9 years in 2000 to 26.3 years in 2014, 26.6 years in 2016, and 27.5 years in 2023, directly aligning with the stated figure.

2:03:00supportedhighBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

In the United States, the likelihood of a woman becoming a mother at age 35 or older is approximately 15%.

"the likelihood of becoming a mom in the US I think at age 35 or older is around 15%." (said at 2:03:00)

Demographic surveillance data from the CDC's National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) and national vital statistics reports indicate that by age 40, approximately 85% of women in the United States have had a child (meaning roughly 15% remain childless into advanced reproductive ages). First births to women aged 35 and older have steadily increased in recent decades to represent a noticeable fraction of all births (and ~10–15% of first-time mothers depending on cohort measures).

2:45:35supportedmoderateBirth Rate Debate: “40% Of Girls Will Never Be Mothers”

Total global births peaked around 2013 at approximately 145 million births in one year.

"total births on the planet peaked around 2013, I think, at 145 million in one year. It's way down already. That's total births including Africa, sub-Saharan Africa." (said at 2:45:35)

Global demographic analyses synthesising international vital registration, census, and survey data (such as the Global Burden of Disease fertility study and United Nations World Population Prospects) confirm that total annual livebirths globally peaked in the early-to-mid 2010s (around 2012–2014) at approximately 140 to 145 million births per year, before beginning a steady decline driven by falling total fertility rates worldwide.

Fact-checked episodes

Publications